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Ceuta vs Malaga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 40 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:15

Ceuta

PPG 1.95 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Malaga

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.5%0-26.9%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.4%1-112.1%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-17.7%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.3%3-13.3%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 22.7% 4.40 +59.3%

Draw 26.4% 26.3% 3.80 +0.2%

Away win 37.3% 57.8% 1.73 -35.5%

Over 2.5 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% 38.5% 2.60 -14.8%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceuta1.3

Malaga1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CEUTA · PPG 1.95

MALAGA · PPG 1.26

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.95) > Away AVERAGE (1.26)

Win probability 1X2

Ceuta (H) 36.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +59.3%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +0.2%

Malaga (A) 37.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceuta face Malaga in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceuta a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Malaga 37%, so Malaga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ceuta and 1.4 for Malaga (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceuta are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.26 for Malaga. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +59.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Ceuta vs Malaga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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