Ceuta vs Malaga Prediction & Tips

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Spain - Segunda División Regular Season - 40 Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube· Ceuta Saturday, May 16, 2026 14:15

Ceuta PPG 1.95

1-4 MISS

Malaga PPG 1.26

Home· +59.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.2%

Odds: 4.40 EV: +59.3%

Draw 26.4%

Odds: 3.80 EV: +0.2%

Away 37.3%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -35.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% Odds: 2.60 -14.8%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.60 -12.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Ceuta

1.28

Malaga

1.44

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+59.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.95) > Away AVERAGE (1.26)