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Breitenrain vs Basel B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Breitenrain

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Basel B

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.7%0-26.0%0-33.5%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.7%1-110.1%1-28.9%1-35.3%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.3%2-17.6%2-26.7%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.1%3-13.8%3-23.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.0%4+-21.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 44.4% 2.25 -21.0%

Draw 23.7% 27.4% 3.65 -8.1%

Away win 41.2% 37.7% 2.65 +9.2%

Over 2.5 61.4% 65.4% 1.53 -6.1%

Over 3.5 41.3% 42.6% 2.35 -2.9%

BTTS 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breitenrain1.5

Basel B1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BREITENRAIN · PPG 1.53

BASEL B · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Breitenrain (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.0%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.1%

Basel B (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Breitenrain face Basel B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breitenrain a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Basel B 41%, so Basel B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Breitenrain and 1.8 for Basel B (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breitenrain are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.73 for Basel B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Breitenrain vs Basel B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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