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Viking vs Start Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Viking

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

6 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Start

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 82% chance

Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-10.7%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.0%1-12.6%1-20.7%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.6%2-14.9%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.2%3-16.2%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-031.9%4+-116.3%4+-24.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 84.7% 1.18 -11.5%

Draw 17.4% 16.1% 6.20 +4.7%

Away win 7.6% 6.7% 15.00 +8.4%

Over 2.5 69.8% 72.5% 1.38 -3.7%

Over 3.5 62.9% 51.3% 1.95 +22.7%

BTTS 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-3

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.6%

H 75% / xG 3.8-0.5 / O2.5 70% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.2%

#2 4–0 11.7%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 5–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viking3.8

Start0.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKING · PPG 3.00

START · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

82%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Viking (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -11.5%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +4.7%

Start (A) 7.6%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viking face Start in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viking a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Start 8%, so Viking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Viking and 0.5 for Start (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viking are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Start. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 6-3.

Viking vs Start Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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