Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Viking vs Start

Viking vs Start Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Viking

PPG 3.00 · HOME

6 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Start

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-10.7%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.0%1-12.6%1-20.7%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.6%2-14.9%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.2%3-16.2%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-031.9%4+-116.3%4+-24.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 84.7% 1.18 -11.5%

Draw 17.4% 16.1% 6.20 +4.7%

Away win 7.6% 6.7% 15.00 +8.4%

Over 2.5 69.8% 72.5% 1.38 -3.7%

Over 3.5 62.9% 51.3% 1.95 +22.7%

BTTS 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-3

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.6%

H 75% / xG 3.8-0.5 / O2.5 70% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.2%

#2 4–0 11.7%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 5–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viking3.8

Start0.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKING · PPG 3.00

START · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Viking (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -11.5%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +4.7%

Start (A) 7.6%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viking face Start in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viking a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Start 8%, so Viking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Viking and 0.5 for Start (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viking are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Start. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 6-3.

Viking vs Start Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - Eliteserien Predictions