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Rosenborg vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Rosenborg

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Aalesund

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-110.2%0-24.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.9%1-112.9%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.0%2-18.1%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.4%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 59.9% 1.67 -20.7%

Draw 28.4% 25.0% 4.00 +8.2%

Away win 24.1% 21.7% 4.60 +6.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 63.7% 1.57 -27.5%

Over 3.5 15.6% 41.7% 2.40 -37.5%

BTTS 48.6% 64.5% 1.55 -24.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 15.9%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosenborg1.3

Aalesund0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENBORG · PPG 1.75

AALESUND · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=47.5%

Win probability 1X2

Rosenborg (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -20.7%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.2%

Aalesund (A) 24.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosenborg face Aalesund in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosenborg a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Aalesund 24%, so Rosenborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Rosenborg and 0.8 for Aalesund (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosenborg are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Aalesund. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Rosenborg vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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