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Molde vs Kristiansund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Molde

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kristiansund

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.0%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.8%1-18.7%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-16.9%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-16.2%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% 71.4% 1.40 -15.0%

Draw 22.0% 20.0% 5.00 +6.0%

Away win 17.3% 15.4% 6.50 +7.5%

Over 2.5 59.1% 69.4% 1.44 -14.9%

Over 3.5 33.4% 47.6% 2.10 -29.9%

BTTS 51.6% 63.7% 1.57 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.6%

H 61% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0✓ 11.8%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Molde2.2

Kristiansund0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLDE · PPG 2.25

KRISTIANSUND · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=60.7%

Win probability 1X2

Molde (H) 60.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -15.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.0%

Kristiansund (A) 17.3%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Molde face Kristiansund in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Molde a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Kristiansund 17%, so Molde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Molde and 0.7 for Kristiansund (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Molde are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.33 for Kristiansund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Molde vs Kristiansund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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