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Lillestrom vs Sandefjord Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Lillestrom

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sandefjord

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-18.6%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-111.8%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.1%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.7%3-13.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 55.6% 1.80 -7.3%

Draw 27.1% 25.6% 3.90 +3.4%

Away win 21.4% 26.0% 3.85 -10.6%

Over 2.5 43.3% 67.6% 1.48 -35.9%

Over 3.5 14.5% 46.5% 2.15 -41.3%

BTTS 48.6% 69.4% 1.44 -30.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrom1.4

Sandefjord0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTROM · PPG 2.00

SANDEFJORD · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrom (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -7.3%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.4%

Sandefjord (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrom face Sandefjord in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrom a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Sandefjord 21%, so Lillestrom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lillestrom and 0.6 for Sandefjord (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrom are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Sandefjord. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Lillestrom vs Sandefjord Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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