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Fredrikstad vs HamKam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Fredrikstad

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

HamKam

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.9%0-24.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.1%1-18.9%1-27.8%1-34.6%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.8%3-15.0%3-24.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 51.3% 1.95 -19.9%

Draw 23.4% 28.2% 3.55 -10.2%

Away win 35.5% 27.4% 3.65 +29.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 57.8% 1.73 +10.5%

Over 3.5 48.0% 35.7% 2.80 +34.4%

BTTS 62.5% 62.5% 1.60 0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.5%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1✓ 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fredrikstad1.8

HamKam1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 1.33

HAMKAM · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=41.1%

Win probability 1X2

Fredrikstad (H) 41.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -19.9%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.2%

HamKam (A) 35.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fredrikstad face HamKam in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fredrikstad a 41% chance, the draw 23% and HamKam 36%, so Fredrikstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Fredrikstad and 1.8 for HamKam (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fredrikstad are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.50 for HamKam. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Fredrikstad vs HamKam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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