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Retz vs Gloggnitz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 31 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Retz

PPG 0.57 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Gloggnitz

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-19.9%0-211.5%0-39.0%0-4+9.1%1 1-03.5%1-18.2%1-29.5%1-37.4%1-4+7.5%2 2-01.5%2-13.4%2-24.0%2-33.1%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.7% 10.0% 10.00 +22.2%

Draw 21.9% 12.5% 8.00 +45.1%

Away win 64.4% 89.3% 1.12 -27.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 76.9% 1.30 -20.2%

Over 3.5 38.9% 56.5% 1.77 -31.1%

BTTS 51.7% 49.0% 2.04 +5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob51.7%

A 64% / xG 0.8-2.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 0–3 9.0%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Retz0.8

Gloggnitz2.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RETZ · PPG 0.57

GLOGGNITZ · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.79) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Retz (H) 13.7%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +22.2%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +45.1%

Gloggnitz (A) 64.4%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Retz face Gloggnitz in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Retz a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Gloggnitz 64%, so Gloggnitz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Retz and 2.3 for Gloggnitz (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Retz are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.79 for Gloggnitz. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Retz vs Gloggnitz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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