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Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Chornomorets

PPG 2.46 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Livyi Bereh

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-112.9%0-24.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.6%1-113.0%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.9%2-16.5%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.0%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 37.0% 2.70 +12.9%

Draw 33.6% 32.3% 3.10 +4.2%

Away win 24.6% 42.0% 2.38 -24.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 42.6% 2.35 -17.8%

Over 3.5 10.0% 24.4% 4.10 -35.4%

BTTS 46.2% 52.6% 1.90 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 17.5%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chornomorets1.0

Livyi Bereh0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHORNOMORETS · PPG 2.46

LIVYI BEREH · PPG 1.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.46) > Away GOOD (1.77)

Win probability 1X2

Chornomorets (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +12.9%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +4.2%

Livyi Bereh (A) 24.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chornomorets face Livyi Bereh in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chornomorets a 42% chance, the draw 34% and Livyi Bereh 25%, so Chornomorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Chornomorets and 0.7 for Livyi Bereh (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chornomorets are averaging 2.46 points per game versus 1.77 for Livyi Bereh. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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