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Spakenburg vs Katwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Spakenburg

PPG 1.94 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Katwijk

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.8%0-22.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-03.9%1-16.8%1-25.8%1-33.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.7%2-18.1%2-26.9%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.7%3-16.4%3-25.5%3-33.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-16.7%4+-25.8%4+-33.3%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 58.8% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 8.1%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spakenburg2.4

Katwijk1.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPAKENBURG · PPG 1.94

KATWIJK · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Spakenburg (H) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Katwijk (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Spakenburg face Katwijk in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spakenburg a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Katwijk 25%, so Spakenburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Spakenburg and 1.7 for Katwijk (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spakenburg are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.31 for Katwijk. This match finished 2-1.

Spakenburg vs Katwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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