Today / Netherlands - Tweede Divisie / Jong Sparta vs De Treffers

Jong Sparta vs De Treffers Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Jong Sparta

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

De Treffers

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.1%0-24.4%0-33.2%0-4+2.9%1 1-03.4%1-17.3%1-28.0%1-35.8%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.6%2-27.2%2-35.2%2-4+4.7%3 3-01.8%3-14.0%3-24.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.7%4+-22.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 26.3% 3.80 +33.8%

Draw 23.4% 25.0% 4.00 -3.8%

Away win 41.4% 61.7% 1.62 -32.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 56.3% 56.2% 1.78 +0.2%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.0%

A 41% / xG 1.8-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Sparta1.8

De Treffers2.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG SPARTA · PPG 1.50

DE TREFFERS · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Jong Sparta (H) 35.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +33.8%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.8%

De Treffers (A) 41.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Sparta face De Treffers in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Sparta a 35% chance, the draw 23% and De Treffers 41%, so De Treffers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Jong Sparta and 2.2 for De Treffers (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Sparta are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.69 for De Treffers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Jong Sparta vs De Treffers Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Tweede Divisie Predictions