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E. Maassluis vs Jong Almere C. Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

E. Maassluis

PPG 1.31 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Jong Almere C.

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.1%0-25.5%0-33.3%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.3%1-19.6%1-28.7%1-35.3%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.2%3-14.0%3-23.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.3%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 43.5% 2.30 -19.3%

Draw 23.7% 27.8% 3.60 -8.8%

Away win 41.2% 41.7% 2.40 -1.1%

Over 2.5 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Over 3.5 44.0% 46.5% 2.15 -5.4%

BTTS 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

E. Maassluis1.6

Jong Almere C.1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

E. MAASSLUIS · PPG 1.31

JONG ALMERE C. · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

E. Maassluis (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.8%

Jong Almere C. (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

E. Maassluis face Jong Almere C. in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives E. Maassluis a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Jong Almere C. 41%, so Jong Almere C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for E. Maassluis and 1.8 for Jong Almere C. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, E. Maassluis are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.94 for Jong Almere C.. This match finished 0-1.

E. Maassluis vs Jong Almere C. Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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