Today / Netherlands - Tweede Divisie / Barendrecht vs E. Maassluis

Barendrecht vs E. Maassluis Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Barendrecht

PPG 1.63 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

E. Maassluis

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.1%0-22.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.5%1-17.2%1-25.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.3%2-18.5%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.2%3-16.7%3-25.3%3-32.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.8%4+-25.5%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 40.8% 2.45 +28.4%

Draw 22.9% 27.0% 3.70 -9.2%

Away win 24.7% 45.5% 2.20 -27.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Over 3.5 55.7% 48.3% 2.07 +15.3%

BTTS 63.0% 71.4% 1.40 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–2✓ 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barendrecht2.4

E. Maassluis1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 55.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BARENDRECHT · PPG 1.63

E. MAASSLUIS · PPG 0.44

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Barendrecht (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +28.4%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.2%

E. Maassluis (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barendrecht face E. Maassluis in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barendrecht a 52% chance, the draw 23% and E. Maassluis 25%, so Barendrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Barendrecht and 1.6 for E. Maassluis (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barendrecht are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.44 for E. Maassluis. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Barendrecht vs E. Maassluis Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Tweede Divisie Predictions