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Netherlands - Tweede Divisie Saturday, May 23, 2026 13:30 
Barendrecht PPG 1.63 
E. Maassluis PPG 0.44
Netherlands - Tweede Divisie Saturday, May 23, 2026 13:30 Barendrecht PPG 1.631-2 HIT CS5
E. Maassluis PPG 0.44Home· +28.4% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 63.9% Odds: 1.44 -8.0%
Over 3.5 55.7% Odds: 2.07 +15.3%
BTTS 63.0% Odds: 1.40 -11.8%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-1 ✘
2nd 1-1 ✘
3rd 2-2 ✘
4th 3-1 ✘
5th 1-2 ✔
Expected Goals (xG)
Barendrecht 2.35
E. Maassluis 1.60
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -8.0% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-8.0%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 95%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=52.4%