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Katwijk vs Jong Sparta Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Katwijk

PPG 1.75 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Jong Sparta

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.8%0-22.7%0-31.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-03.4%1-16.5%1-26.2%1-33.9%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.0%2-17.5%2-27.1%2-34.5%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.1%3-15.8%3-25.5%3-33.5%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.8%4+-25.5%4+-33.5%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 66.7% 1.50 -28.7%

Draw 22.4% 22.7% 4.40 -0.9%

Away win 30.1% 23.1% 4.33 +30.3%

Over 2.5 65.2% 82.0% 1.22 -20.5%

Over 3.5 60.8% 66.7% 1.50 -8.8%

BTTS 65.4% 77.5% 1.29 -15.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob65.4%

H 48% / xG 2.3-1.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.5%

#2 1–1 6.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Katwijk2.3

Jong Sparta1.9

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 60.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KATWIJK · PPG 1.75

JONG SPARTA · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Katwijk (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -28.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.9%

Jong Sparta (A) 30.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Katwijk face Jong Sparta in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Katwijk a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Jong Sparta 30%, so Katwijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Katwijk and 1.9 for Jong Sparta (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Katwijk are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.31 for Jong Sparta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Katwijk vs Jong Sparta Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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