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De Treffers vs HSV Hoek Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

De Treffers

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

HSV Hoek

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.5%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.7%1-111.8%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 50.0% 2.00 -5.2%

Draw 26.2% 28.6% 3.50 -5.0%

Away win 26.4% 34.5% 2.90 -14.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

Over 3.5 30.5% 48.1% 2.08 -36.6%

BTTS 54.6% 71.4% 1.40 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

De Treffers1.6

HSV Hoek1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DE TREFFERS · PPG 2.00

HSV HOEK · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

De Treffers (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -5.2%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.0%

HSV Hoek (A) 26.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

De Treffers face HSV Hoek in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives De Treffers a 47% chance, the draw 26% and HSV Hoek 26%, so De Treffers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for De Treffers and 1.2 for HSV Hoek (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, De Treffers are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.69 for HSV Hoek. This match finished 2-2.

De Treffers vs HSV Hoek Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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