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Koninklijke HFC vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Koninklijke HFC

PPG 1.81 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Spakenburg

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.6%0-26.9%0-33.6%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.2%1-111.4%1-29.1%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.7%2-17.6%2-26.0%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.1%3-13.3%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 26.3% 3.80 +31.5%

Draw 24.8% 26.3% 3.80 -3.5%

Away win 40.6% 59.9% 1.67 -32.2%

Over 2.5 59.1% 66.7% 1.50 -11.3%

Over 3.5 33.5% 45.7% 2.19 -26.6%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Koninklijke HFC1.3

Spakenburg1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KONINKLIJKE HFC · PPG 1.81

SPAKENBURG · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Koninklijke HFC (H) 34.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +31.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.5%

Spakenburg (A) 40.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Koninklijke HFC face Spakenburg in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Koninklijke HFC a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Spakenburg 41%, so Spakenburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Koninklijke HFC and 1.6 for Spakenburg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Koninklijke HFC are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.38 for Spakenburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Koninklijke HFC vs Spakenburg Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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