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HSV Hoek vs Rijnsburgse B. Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

HSV Hoek

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rijnsburgse B.

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.5%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.5%1-19.2%1-26.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.4%3-16.3%3-24.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-15.0%4+-23.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 46.5% 2.15 +10.5%

Draw 23.9% 28.6% 3.50 -9.8%

Away win 24.7% 38.2% 2.62 -21.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 51.0% 1.96 -11.8%

BTTS 59.7% 73.5% 1.36 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 2–0✓ 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HSV Hoek2.0

Rijnsburgse B.1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HSV HOEK · PPG 2.00

RIJNSBURGSE B. · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

HSV Hoek (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +10.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.8%

Rijnsburgse B. (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

HSV Hoek face Rijnsburgse B. in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HSV Hoek a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Rijnsburgse B. 25%, so HSV Hoek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for HSV Hoek and 1.4 for Rijnsburgse B. (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HSV Hoek are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.44 for Rijnsburgse B.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 2-0.

HSV Hoek vs Rijnsburgse B. Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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