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Halmstad vs Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Halmstad

PPG 0.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Elfsborg

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Away 55% chance

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+23.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-115.2%0-214.6%0-39.4%0-4+7.0%1 1-04.9%1-19.3%1-29.0%1-35.8%1-4+4.3%2 2-01.5%2-12.9%2-22.8%2-31.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.5% 26.0% 3.85 -28.8%

Draw 23.1% 30.3% 3.30 -14.3%

Away win 63.4% 51.3% 1.95 +23.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 25.1% 26.0% 3.85 -2.0%

BTTS 48.6% 54.6% 1.83 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob48.6%

A 63% / xG 0.6-1.9 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.6%

#2 0–1 15.2%

#3 1–1✓ 9.3%

#4 0–3 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halmstad0.6

Elfsborg1.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HALMSTAD · PPG 0.33

ELFSBORG · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

55%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Halmstad (H) 13.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -28.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.3%

Elfsborg (A) 63.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Halmstad face Elfsborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halmstad a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Elfsborg 63%, so Elfsborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Halmstad and 1.9 for Elfsborg (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halmstad are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Elfsborg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Halmstad vs Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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