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GAIS vs Degerfors Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

GAIS

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Degerfors

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-110.5%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.7%1-113.1%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.3%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 61.0% 1.64 -25.9%

Draw 28.8% 26.7% 3.75 +4.8%

Away win 25.9% 19.0% 5.25 +21.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Over 3.5 18.4% 29.4% 3.40 -22.5%

BTTS 49.5% 54.1% 1.85 -8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GAIS1.3

Degerfors1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GAIS · PPG 1.33

DEGERFORS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

Chance this pick lands

50%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.00) strong but model favors Home (P=45.2%)

Win probability 1X2

GAIS (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -25.9%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +4.8%

Degerfors (A) 25.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

GAIS face Degerfors in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GAIS a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Degerfors 26%, so GAIS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for GAIS and 1.0 for Degerfors (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GAIS are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Degerfors. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 1-1.

GAIS vs Degerfors Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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