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Gagra vs Rustavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Gagra

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Rustavi

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-117.5%0-211.2%0-34.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.7%1-112.4%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.4%2-14.4%2-22.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.0%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 37.0% 2.70 -20.6%

Draw 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

Away win 45.8% 43.5% 2.30 +5.3%

Over 2.5 37.7% 46.5% 2.15 -18.9%

Over 3.5 14.1% 25.8% 3.88 -27.2%

BTTS 48.6% 54.9% 1.82 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.6%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.5%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1✓ 12.4%

#4 0–2 11.2%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gagra0.7

Rustavi1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GAGRA · PPG 0.33

RUSTAVI · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Gagra (H) 24.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -20.6%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.0%

Rustavi (A) 45.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gagra face Rustavi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gagra a 24% chance, the draw 30% and Rustavi 46%, so Rustavi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Gagra and 1.3 for Rustavi (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gagra are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.17 for Rustavi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Gagra vs Rustavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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