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Qarabag vs Imisli Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Qarabag

PPG 2.06 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Imisli

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-15.3%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.5%1-19.5%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.4%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-15.0%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-13.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.2% 87.0% 1.15 -29.6%

Draw 23.6% 17.4% 5.75 +21.4%

Away win 15.2% 5.6% 18.00 +104.2%

Over 2.5 46.7% 69.0% 1.45 -32.3%

Over 3.5 20.4% 46.5% 2.15 -33.7%

BTTS 46.3% 45.5% 2.20 +1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.3%

H 61% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 2–0 15.6%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qarabag1.8

Imisli0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

QARABAG · PPG 2.06

IMISLI · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Qarabag (H) 61.2%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -29.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +21.4%

Imisli (A) 15.2%

ODDS 18.00 · IMPLIED 5.6% EV +104.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qarabag face Imisli in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qarabag a 61% chance, the draw 24% and Imisli 15%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Qarabag and 0.5 for Imisli (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qarabag are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.50 for Imisli. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +104.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Qarabag vs Imisli Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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