Qarabag vs Imisli Prediction & Tips

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Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa Regular Season - 32 Tofiq Bahramov Stadium· Baku Saturday, May 16, 2026 13:00

Qarabag PPG 2.06

3-0 HIT CS5

Imisli PPG 1.50

Away· +104.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.2%

Odds: 1.15 EV: -29.6%

Draw 23.6%

Odds: 5.75 EV: +21.4%

Away 15.2%

Odds: 18.00 EV: +104.2%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.7% Odds: 1.45 -32.3%

Over 3.5 20.4% Odds: 2.15 -33.7%

BTTS 46.3% Odds: 2.20 +1.9%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Qarabag

1.77

Imisli

0.54

Model SuggestionHome -29.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -29.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+104.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away GOOD (1.50)