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Pennarossa vs Juvenes/D. Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Pennarossa

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Juvenes/D.

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-112.8%0-28.8%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.8%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.7%2-16.4%2-24.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 33.3% 3.00 -18.1%

Draw 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -7.2%

Away win 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

Over 2.5 42.1% 51.3% 1.95 -17.9%

Over 3.5 21.4% — — —

BTTS 47.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob47.1%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.8%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0✓ 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pennarossa1.0

Juvenes/D.1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PENNAROSSA · PPG 1.07

JUVENES/D. · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Pennarossa (H) 27.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.2%

Juvenes/D. (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pennarossa face Juvenes/D. in San-Marino - Campionato on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pennarossa a 27% chance, the draw 27% and Juvenes/D. 45%, so Juvenes/D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Pennarossa and 1.4 for Juvenes/D. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pennarossa are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.21 for Juvenes/D.. This match finished 0-0.

Pennarossa vs Juvenes/D. Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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