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Virtus vs La Fiorita Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Virtus

PPG 2.26 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

La Fiorita

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.7%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.4%1-112.2%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.6%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.1%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 47.6% 2.10 -16.4%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.1%

Away win 35.1% 33.3% 3.00 +5.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 48.8% 2.05 +9.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 27.9% 3.58 +12.8%

BTTS 55.0% 55.9% 1.79 -1.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 43.5% 2.30 -7.8%

Away O1.5 38.2% 34.6% 2.89 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Virtus1.4

La Fiorita1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VIRTUS · PPG 2.26

LA FIORITA · PPG 1.79

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Virtus (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.4%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.1%

La Fiorita (A) 35.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Virtus face La Fiorita in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Virtus a 40% chance, the draw 25% and La Fiorita 35%, so Virtus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Virtus and 1.3 for La Fiorita (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Virtus are averaging 2.26 points per game versus 1.79 for La Fiorita. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Virtus vs La Fiorita Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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