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Tre Penne vs Cosmos Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:15

Tre Penne

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Cosmos

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+16.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.1%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.2%1-112.1%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 78.7% 1.27 -43.7%

Draw 26.9% 20.0% 5.00 +20.7%

Away win 28.8% 12.5% 8.00 +78.2%

Over 2.5 50.6% 58.8% 1.70 -14.0%

Over 3.5 30.1% 38.2% 2.62 -21.1%

BTTS 52.9% 45.5% 2.20 +16.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 71.9% 1.39 -44.5%

Away O1.5 34.4% 15.0% 6.65 +128.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tre Penne1.5

Cosmos1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TRE PENNE · PPG 1.94

COSMOS · PPG 1.38

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tre Penne (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -43.7%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +20.7%

Cosmos (A) 28.8%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +78.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tre Penne face Cosmos in San-Marino - Campionato on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tre Penne a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Cosmos 29%, so Tre Penne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tre Penne and 1.2 for Cosmos (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tre Penne are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.38 for Cosmos. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +128.8%.

Tre Penne vs Cosmos Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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