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Domagnano vs San Giovanni Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:15

Domagnano

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

San Giovanni

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.3%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.5%1-111.6%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.9%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 66.7% 1.50 -32.4%

Draw 26.0% 25.0% 4.00 +2.4%

Away win 28.9% 20.0% 5.00 +26.7%

Over 2.5 53.3% 57.1% 1.75 -6.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.5% 2.74 -13.4%

BTTS 54.4% 56.5% 1.77 -3.7%

Home O1.5 47.7% 61.7% 1.62 -22.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 26.7% 3.75 +38.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.4%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Domagnano1.6

San Giovanni1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DOMAGNANO · PPG 1.56

SAN GIOVANNI · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Domagnano (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -32.4%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +2.4%

San Giovanni (A) 28.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Domagnano face San Giovanni in San-Marino - Campionato on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Domagnano a 45% chance, the draw 26% and San Giovanni 29%, so Domagnano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Domagnano and 1.2 for San Giovanni (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Domagnano are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.00 for San Giovanni. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +38.0%.

Domagnano vs San Giovanni Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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