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Juvenes/D. vs Murata Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Juvenes/D.

PPG 1.14 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Murata

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-13.9%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.8%1-18.4%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-16.3%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-15.5%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 90.1% 1.11 -34.3%

Draw 24.4% 11.8% 8.50 +107.4%

Away win 16.4% 5.9% 17.00 +178.8%

Over 2.5 51.6% 66.7% 1.50 -22.6%

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 3–0 10.4%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juvenes/D.2.1

Murata0.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENES/D. · PPG 1.14

MURATA · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.36)

Win probability 1X2

Juvenes/D. (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -34.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +107.4%

Murata (A) 16.4%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +178.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juvenes/D. face Murata in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juvenes/D. a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Murata 16%, so Juvenes/D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Juvenes/D. and 0.6 for Murata (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juvenes/D. are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.36 for Murata. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +178.8%. This match finished 5-2.

Juvenes/D. vs Murata Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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