Juvenes/D. vs Murata Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

San-Marino - Campionato Regular Season - 30 San Marino Stadium· Serravalle Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Juvenes/D. PPG 1.14

5-2 MISS

Murata PPG 0.36

Away· +178.8% ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Juvenes/D. face Murata in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juvenes/D. a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Murata 16%, so Juvenes/D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Juvenes/D. and 0.6 for Murata (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juvenes/D. are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.36 for Murata. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +178.8%. This match finished 5-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.2%

Odds: 1.11 EV: -34.3%

Draw 24.4%

Odds: 8.50 EV: +107.4%

Away 16.4%

Odds: 17.00 EV: +178.8%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: 1.50 -22.6%

Over 3.5 29.3% Odds: — —

BTTS 49.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 3-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Juvenes/D.

2.13

Murata

0.61

Model SuggestionHome -34.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -34.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+178.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.36)