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Domagnano vs Folgore Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Domagnano

PPG 1.71 · HOME

3 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Folgore

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.79)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.4%0-25.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.5%1-111.5%1-27.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.0%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.5%3-14.6%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 38.5% 2.60 +10.2%

Draw 24.6% 29.4% 3.40 -16.4%

Away win 33.0% 43.5% 2.30 -24.1%

Over 2.5 55.5% 57.1% 1.75 -2.9%

Over 3.5 33.1% — — —

BTTS 58.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-7

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.4%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 8.5%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Domagnano1.6

Folgore1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DOMAGNANO · PPG 1.71

FOLGORE · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Domagnano (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +10.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -16.4%

Folgore (A) 33.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Domagnano face Folgore in San-Marino - Campionato on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Domagnano a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Folgore 33%, so Domagnano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Domagnano and 1.3 for Folgore (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Domagnano are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.79 for Folgore. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 3-7.

Domagnano vs Folgore Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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