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Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Tre Fiori

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Pennarossa

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.6%0-25.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.4%1-111.6%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.8%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.2%3-14.4%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 80.0% 1.25 -47.5%

Draw 23.6% 20.0% 5.00 +10.8%

Away win 34.4% 11.8% 8.50 +192.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 59.9% 1.67 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 37.7% 2.65 -3.0%

BTTS 59.9% 48.3% 2.07 +24.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.9%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tre Fiori1.5

Pennarossa1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TRE FIORI · PPG 2.17

PENNAROSSA · PPG 1.17

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tre Fiori (H) 42.0%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -47.5%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.8%

Pennarossa (A) 34.4%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +192.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tre Fiori face Pennarossa in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tre Fiori a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Pennarossa 34%, so Tre Fiori are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tre Fiori and 1.4 for Pennarossa (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tre Fiori are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.17 for Pennarossa. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 5-2.

Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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