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Fiorentino vs Virtus Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:15

Fiorentino

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Virtus

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.7%0-26.9%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.6%1-112.2%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.4%2-17.7%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.3%3-13.3%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 13.3% 7.50 +159.5%

Draw 30.8% 20.0% 5.00 +54.0%

Away win 34.6% 78.1% 1.28 -55.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 62.5% 1.60 -19.4%

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 52.9% — — —

Home O1.5 38.4% — — —

Away O1.5 42.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.9%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–0 6.8%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentino1.3

Virtus1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINO · PPG 1.34

VIRTUS · PPG 1.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentino (H) 34.6%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +159.5%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +54.0%

Virtus (A) 34.6%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -55.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentino face Virtus in San-Marino - Campionato on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentino a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Virtus 35%, so Fiorentino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Fiorentino and 1.4 for Virtus (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentino are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.82 for Virtus.

Fiorentino vs Virtus Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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