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Cosmos vs Libertas Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

Cosmos

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Libertas

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 39.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.6%0-25.6%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.2%1-112.1%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.6%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.1%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 66.7% 1.50 -40.2%

Draw 24.8% 25.0% 4.00 -0.5%

Away win 35.2% 20.0% 5.00 +76.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.6%

BTTS 55.0% 51.5% 1.94 +6.7%

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cosmos1.4

Libertas1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

COSMOS · PPG 1.52

LIBERTAS · PPG 1.17

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cosmos (H) 39.9%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -40.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.5%

Libertas (A) 35.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +76.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cosmos face Libertas in San-Marino - Campionato on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cosmos a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Libertas 35%, so Cosmos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cosmos and 1.3 for Libertas (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cosmos are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.17 for Libertas. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Cosmos vs Libertas Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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