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Faetano vs Tre Fiori Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:15

Faetano

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Tre Fiori

PPG 2.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-110.0%0-28.5%0-34.9%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.6%1-111.3%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.7%2-16.4%2-25.5%2-33.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.4%3-12.4%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.0% 5.3% 19.00 +213.6%

Draw 24.6% 11.1% 9.00 +72.8%

Away win 51.4% 90.9% 1.10 -43.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 73.5% 1.36 -26.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 51.0% 1.96 -37.9%

BTTS 53.1% 37.5% 2.67 +41.8%

Home O1.5 31.2% 8.9% 11.25 +251.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob53.1%

A 51% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Faetano1.1

Tre Fiori1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FAETANO · PPG 1.00

TRE FIORI · PPG 2.04

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.58 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Faetano (H) 24.0%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +213.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +72.8%

Tre Fiori (A) 51.4%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -43.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Faetano face Tre Fiori in San-Marino - Campionato on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Faetano a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Tre Fiori 51%, so Tre Fiori are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Faetano and 1.7 for Tre Fiori (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Faetano are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.04 for Tre Fiori. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +251.0%.

Faetano vs Tre Fiori Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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