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San Giovanni vs Tre Penne Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

San Giovanni

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Tre Penne

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 35.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.9%0-25.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.3%1-112.3%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.4%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.9%3-13.9%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 13.3% 7.50 +191.8%

Draw 25.7% 18.2% 5.50 +24.8%

Away win 35.4% 80.0% 1.25 -55.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 59.9% 1.67 -10.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 37.0% 2.70 -14.9%

BTTS 55.0% 47.6% 2.10 +15.5%

Home O1.5 38.0% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Giovanni1.4

Tre Penne1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN GIOVANNI · PPG 1.39

TRE PENNE · PPG 1.94

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Giovanni (H) 38.9%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +191.8%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +24.8%

Tre Penne (A) 35.4%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -55.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Giovanni face Tre Penne in San-Marino - Campionato on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Giovanni a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Tre Penne 35%, so San Giovanni are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for San Giovanni and 1.3 for Tre Penne (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Giovanni are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.94 for Tre Penne. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 2-3.

San Giovanni vs Tre Penne Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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