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Wurzburger K. vs W. Burghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 17:00

Wurzburger K.

PPG 2.27 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

W. Burghausen

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-15.5%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.5%1-110.4%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.3%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 64.5% 1.55 -8.1%

Draw 25.0% 26.7% 3.75 -6.3%

Away win 15.8% 18.5% 5.40 -14.7%

Over 2.5 53.2% 60.6% 1.65 -12.2%

Over 3.5 31.0% 38.5% 2.60 -19.4%

BTTS 52.2% 60.6% 1.65 -13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.2%

H 59% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wurzburger K.1.9

W. Burghausen0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WURZBURGER K. · PPG 2.27

W. BURGHAUSEN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs P(Home)=59.3%

Win probability 1X2

Wurzburger K. (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -8.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.3%

W. Burghausen (A) 15.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wurzburger K. face W. Burghausen in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wurzburger K. a 59% chance, the draw 25% and W. Burghausen 16%, so Wurzburger K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Wurzburger K. and 0.9 for W. Burghausen (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wurzburger K. are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.00 for W. Burghausen. This match finished 4-1.

Wurzburger K. vs W. Burghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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