Wurzburger K. vs W. Burghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern Bayern - 32 Flyeralarm Arena· Wurzburger Friday, May 1, 2026 17:00

Wurzburger K. PPG 2.27

4-1 MISS

W. Burghausen PPG 1.00

Draw· -6.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Wurzburger K. face W. Burghausen in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wurzburger K. a 59% chance, the draw 25% and W. Burghausen 16%, so Wurzburger K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Wurzburger K. and 0.9 for W. Burghausen (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wurzburger K. are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.00 for W. Burghausen. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.3%

Odds: 1.55 EV: -8.1%

Draw 25.0%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -6.3%

Away 15.8%

Odds: 5.40 EV: -14.7%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 53.2% Odds: 1.65 -12.2%

Over 3.5 31.0% Odds: 2.60 -19.4%

BTTS 52.2% Odds: 1.65 -13.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Wurzburger K.

1.90

W. Burghausen

0.90

Model SuggestionHome -8.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -8.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs P(Home)=59.3%