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Freiberg vs FSV Mainz B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Freiberg

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

FSV Mainz B

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.4%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.2%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.7%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 54.1% 1.85 +0.3%

Draw 23.6% 27.8% 3.60 -15.0%

Away win 22.2% 29.0% 3.45 -23.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 30.4% 38.2% 2.62 -20.3%

BTTS 53.2% 64.5% 1.55 -17.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.2%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Freiberg1.8

FSV Mainz B1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FREIBERG · PPG 2.20

FSV MAINZ B · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=54.2%

Win probability 1X2

Freiberg (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +0.3%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.0%

FSV Mainz B (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Freiberg face FSV Mainz B in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freiberg a 54% chance, the draw 24% and FSV Mainz B 22%, so Freiberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Freiberg and 1.0 for FSV Mainz B (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freiberg are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.33 for FSV Mainz B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Freiberg vs FSV Mainz B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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