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Bayern Alzenau vs Freiberg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Bayern Alzenau

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Freiberg

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-16.8%0-28.2%0-36.7%0-4+7.2%1 1-03.2%1-17.8%1-29.5%1-37.7%1-4+8.3%2 2-01.8%2-14.5%2-25.4%2-34.4%2-4+4.8%3 3-00.7%3-11.7%3-22.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.4% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 62.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.1% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob59.7%

A 62% / xG 1.1-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.5%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 0–2 8.2%

#4 1–3 7.7%

#5 0–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern Alzenau1.1

Freiberg2.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN ALZENAU · PPG 1.00

FREIBERG · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Bayern Alzenau (H) 14.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Freiberg (A) 62.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern Alzenau face Freiberg in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern Alzenau a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Freiberg 62%, so Freiberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bayern Alzenau and 2.4 for Freiberg (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern Alzenau are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Freiberg. This match finished 3-3.

Bayern Alzenau vs Freiberg Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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