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Freiberg vs Sandhausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 12:00

Freiberg

PPG 2.06 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sandhausen

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.3%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.3%1-19.2%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-17.0%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-16.2%4+-23.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 22.6% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 40.8% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Freiberg2.1

Sandhausen1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FREIBERG · PPG 2.06

SANDHAUSEN · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.06), Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Freiberg (H) 51.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sandhausen (A) 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Freiberg face Sandhausen in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freiberg a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Sandhausen 23%, so Freiberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Freiberg and 1.1 for Sandhausen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freiberg are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.81 for Sandhausen. This match finished 1-2.

Freiberg vs Sandhausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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