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Wiedenbruck vs Dortmund B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Wiedenbruck

PPG 1.27 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dortmund B

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.3%0-26.8%0-34.8%0-4+4.2%1 1-04.1%1-18.7%1-29.3%1-36.7%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.8%2-16.0%2-26.5%2-34.6%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.3%3-12.8%3-23.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.2% 26.7% 3.75 +1.2%

Draw 23.9% 24.4% 4.10 -1.2%

Away win 48.8% 58.8% 1.70 -17.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 46.8% 51.8% 1.93 -9.7%

BTTS 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 49% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wiedenbruck1.4

Dortmund B2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WIEDENBRUCK · PPG 1.27

DORTMUND B · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.27) vs Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Wiedenbruck (H) 27.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.2%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.2%

Dortmund B (A) 48.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wiedenbruck face Dortmund B in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wiedenbruck a 27% chance, the draw 24% and Dortmund B 49%, so Dortmund B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wiedenbruck and 2.1 for Dortmund B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wiedenbruck are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.75 for Dortmund B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Wiedenbruck vs Dortmund B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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