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Bocholt vs Dortmund B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Bocholt

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dortmund B

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-14.1%0-25.4%0-34.8%0-4+5.9%1 1-02.4%1-16.3%1-28.3%1-37.3%1-4+9.0%2 2-01.8%2-14.8%2-26.3%2-35.5%2-4+6.9%3 3-00.9%3-12.4%3-23.2%3-32.8%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -20.9%

Draw 22.2% 26.7% 3.75 -16.8%

Away win 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Over 2.5 61.2% 70.4% 1.42 -13.1%

Over 3.5 59.7% 50.0% 2.00 +19.4%

BTTS 58.5% 73.5% 1.36 -20.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob58.5%

A 52% / xG 1.5-2.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.3%

#2 1–3 7.3%

#3 1–1✓ 6.3%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bocholt1.5

Dortmund B2.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 59.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCHOLT · PPG 1.13

DORTMUND B · PPG 1.93

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Bocholt (H) 25.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -16.8%

Dortmund B (A) 52.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bocholt face Dortmund B in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bocholt a 26% chance, the draw 22% and Dortmund B 52%, so Dortmund B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bocholt and 2.6 for Dortmund B (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bocholt are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.93 for Dortmund B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Bocholt vs Dortmund B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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