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Mgladbach B vs Gutersloh Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Mgladbach B

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gutersloh

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.7%0-25.1%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.8%1-111.7%1-27.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-18.9%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.4%3-14.5%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 48.8% 2.05 -10.0%

Draw 25.4% 26.7% 3.75 -2.9%

Away win 30.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.0%

Over 2.5 53.6% 67.6% 1.48 -20.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 45.5% 2.20 -30.0%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mgladbach B1.5

Gutersloh1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MGLADBACH B · PPG 1.56

GUTERSLOH · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Mgladbach B (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -10.0%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -2.9%

Gutersloh (A) 30.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mgladbach B face Gutersloh in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mgladbach B a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Gutersloh 31%, so Mgladbach B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Mgladbach B and 1.3 for Gutersloh (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mgladbach B are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.50 for Gutersloh. This match finished 2-4.

Mgladbach B vs Gutersloh Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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