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Schalke 04 B vs Dortmund B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:00

Schalke 04 B

PPG 1.53 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dortmund B

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 72.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+14.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.3%0-23.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.6%1-18.3%1-27.5%1-34.5%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.8%3-15.2%3-24.7%3-32.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.9%4+-23.5%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 65.4% 1.53 -38.0%

Draw 23.9% 23.8% 4.20 +0.4%

Away win 35.6% 18.5% 5.40 +92.2%

Over 2.5 72.2% 64.5% 1.55 +11.9%

Over 3.5 51.5% 42.6% 2.35 +21.0%

BTTS 72.8% 63.7% 1.57 +14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob72.8%

H 40% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schalke 04 B1.9

Dortmund B1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.2% · O3.5 PROB 51.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHALKE 04 B · PPG 1.53

DORTMUND B · PPG 1.87

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.53) vs Away GOOD (1.87)

Win probability 1X2

Schalke 04 B (H) 40.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -38.0%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.4%

Dortmund B (A) 35.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +92.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schalke 04 B face Dortmund B in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schalke 04 B a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Dortmund B 36%, so Schalke 04 B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Schalke 04 B and 1.8 for Dortmund B (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schalke 04 B are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.87 for Dortmund B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +92.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Schalke 04 B vs Dortmund B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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