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Bochum B vs Dusseldorf B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Bochum B

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dusseldorf B

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.5%0-24.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.1%1-19.8%1-27.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.6%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.2%3-15.1%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.4%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 51.3% 1.95 -16.9%

Draw 23.2% 25.3% 3.95 -5.0%

Away win 34.1% 33.3% 3.00 +2.3%

Over 2.5 61.9% 66.7% 1.50 -7.1%

Over 3.5 43.3% 43.5% 2.30 -0.4%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2✓ 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bochum B1.8

Dusseldorf B1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCHUM B · PPG 1.06

DUSSELDORF B · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Bochum B (H) 42.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -16.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -5.0%

Dusseldorf B (A) 34.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bochum B face Dusseldorf B in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bochum B a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Dusseldorf B 34%, so Bochum B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bochum B and 1.6 for Dusseldorf B (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bochum B are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.19 for Dusseldorf B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Bochum B vs Dusseldorf B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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