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Bochum B vs Mgladbach B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 31 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:00

Bochum B

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Mgladbach B

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.7%0-27.6%0-35.7%0-4+5.4%1 1-03.8%1-18.5%1-29.5%1-37.1%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.4%2-15.3%2-26.0%2-34.5%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.0%3-12.2%3-22.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% 44.4% 2.25 -40.8%

Draw 24.2% 27.0% 3.70 -10.5%

Away win 49.6% 38.5% 2.60 +29.0%

Over 2.5 60.5% 66.7% 1.50 -9.3%

Over 3.5 46.5% 43.5% 2.30 +7.0%

BTTS 58.5% 70.4% 1.42 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob58.5%

A 50% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.5%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 1–3 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bochum B1.3

Mgladbach B2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCHUM B · PPG 1.14

MGLADBACH B · PPG 2.13

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Bochum B (H) 26.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -40.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.5%

Mgladbach B (A) 49.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bochum B face Mgladbach B in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bochum B a 26% chance, the draw 24% and Mgladbach B 50%, so Mgladbach B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bochum B and 2.2 for Mgladbach B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bochum B are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 2.13 for Mgladbach B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Bochum B vs Mgladbach B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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