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Bocholt vs Oberhausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Bocholt

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Oberhausen

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-18.5%0-27.9%0-34.8%0-4+3.4%1 1-05.7%1-110.5%1-29.7%1-35.9%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.5%2-16.5%2-26.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.4%3-12.6%3-22.4%3-31.5%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 37.0% 2.70 -13.5%

Draw 25.2% 27.0% 3.70 -4.1%

Away win 46.0% 46.5% 2.15 -1.1%

Over 2.5 59.9% 69.4% 1.44 -13.7%

Over 3.5 37.0% 47.6% 2.10 -22.3%

BTTS 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 0–1 8.5%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bocholt1.2

Oberhausen1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCHOLT · PPG 1.13

OBERHAUSEN · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Bocholt (H) 28.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.5%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.1%

Oberhausen (A) 46.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bocholt face Oberhausen in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bocholt a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Oberhausen 46%, so Oberhausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bocholt and 1.8 for Oberhausen (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bocholt are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 2.06 for Oberhausen. This match finished 2-2.

Bocholt vs Oberhausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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