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Paderborn B vs Rodinghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Paderborn B

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rodinghausen

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.6%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.5%1-25.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.2%3-16.9%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.8%4+-23.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 56.5% 1.77 -6.5%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 39.6% 45.5% 2.20 -12.9%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paderborn B2.1

Rodinghausen1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PADERBORN B · PPG 1.69

RODINGHAUSEN · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=52.8%

Win probability 1X2

Paderborn B (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -6.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

Rodinghausen (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paderborn B face Rodinghausen in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paderborn B a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Rodinghausen 23%, so Paderborn B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Paderborn B and 1.1 for Rodinghausen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paderborn B are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.81 for Rodinghausen. This match finished 2-0.

Paderborn B vs Rodinghausen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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