Newells vs Instituto Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Apertura - 16 Estadio Marcelo Bielsa· Rosario Sunday, April 26, 2026 20:30

Newells PPG 0.86

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Instituto PPG 0.67

Home· +28.1% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Newells face Instituto in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newells a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Instituto 25%, so Newells are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Newells and 1.0 for Instituto (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newells are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.67 for Instituto. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.1%

Odds: 2.84 EV: +28.1%

Draw 30.2%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -9.4%

Away 24.7%

Odds: 2.60 EV: -35.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.45 +22.5%

Over 3.5 24.0% Odds: 4.75 +14.0%

BTTS 52.6% Odds: 2.00 +5.2%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Newells

1.47

Instituto

1.02

Model SuggestionBTTS +5.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is +5.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+28.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5/Under 62%

BTTS/No 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -36.4%

Bet Hit 31% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away POOR (0.67)