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Newells vs Instituto Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 16 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 20:30

Newells

PPG 0.86 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Instituto

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.5%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.2%1-112.4%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.1%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.5%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 35.2% 2.84 +28.1%

Draw 30.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Away win 24.7% 38.5% 2.60 -35.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 40.8% 2.45 +22.5%

Over 3.5 24.0% 21.1% 4.75 +14.0%

BTTS 52.6% 50.0% 2.00 +5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newells1.5

Instituto1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWELLS · PPG 0.86

INSTITUTO · PPG 0.67

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Newells (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV +28.1%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.4%

Instituto (A) 24.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -35.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newells face Instituto in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newells a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Instituto 25%, so Newells are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Newells and 1.0 for Instituto (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newells are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.67 for Instituto. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Newells vs Instituto Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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