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River Plate vs A. Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura · Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 21:30

River Plate

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

A. Tucuman

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDD

// Model verdict

Home 65% chance

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.8%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.3%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-15.3%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 68.5% 1.46 -18.1%

Draw 27.5% 25.6% 3.90 +7.2%

Away win 16.4% 12.7% 7.90 +29.6%

Over 2.5 45.2% 47.6% 2.10 -5.1%

Over 3.5 23.9% 26.0% 3.85 -8.0%

BTTS 46.9% 44.4% 2.25 +5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.9%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

River Plate1.7

A. Tucuman0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVER PLATE · PPG 2.14

A. TUCUMAN · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

65%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

River Plate (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -18.1%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +7.2%

A. Tucuman (A) 16.4%

ODDS 7.90 · IMPLIED 12.7% EV +29.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

River Plate face A. Tucuman in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives River Plate a 56% chance, the draw 28% and A. Tucuman 16%, so River Plate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for River Plate and 0.8 for A. Tucuman (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, River Plate are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.00 for A. Tucuman. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 0-1.

River Plate vs A. Tucuman Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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