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Aldosivi vs I. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 9 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:30

Aldosivi

PPG 0.86 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

I. Rivadavia

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 43.1% — a clear edge.

+21.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-118.6%0-212.5%0-35.6%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.8%1-111.8%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-02.8%2-13.8%2-22.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.6%3-10.8%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.9% 29.9% 3.35 -46.7%

Draw 32.0% 33.9% 2.95 -5.6%

Away win 52.2% 43.1% 2.32 +21.1%

Over 2.5 31.7% 37.0% 2.70 -14.4%

Over 3.5 13.9% 18.2% 5.50 -23.5%

BTTS 36.5% 46.5% 2.15 -21.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob36.5%

A 52% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.6%

#2 0–0 13.8%

#3 1–1✓ 11.8%

#4 0–2 12.5%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aldosivi0.6

I. Rivadavia1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALDOSIVI · PPG 0.86

I. RIVADAVIA · PPG 2.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Aldosivi (H) 15.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -46.7%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -5.6%

I. Rivadavia (A) 52.2%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aldosivi face I. Rivadavia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aldosivi a 16% chance, the draw 32% and I. Rivadavia 52%, so I. Rivadavia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Aldosivi and 1.3 for I. Rivadavia (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aldosivi are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 2.33 for I. Rivadavia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Aldosivi vs I. Rivadavia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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