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Rosario Central vs Tigre Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 9 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

Rosario Central

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Tigre

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-111.7%0-25.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.4%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-17.7%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 50.0% 2.00 -22.8%

Draw 33.9% 34.2% 2.92 -1.0%

Away win 27.5% 22.7% 4.40 +21.0%

Over 2.5 34.4% 38.5% 2.60 -10.6%

Over 3.5 15.7% 20.0% 5.00 -21.5%

BTTS 43.4% 46.5% 2.15 -6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.4%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosario Central1.1

Tigre0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSARIO CENTRAL · PPG 1.86

TIGRE · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=38.6%

Win probability 1X2

Rosario Central (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -22.8%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -1.0%

Tigre (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosario Central face Tigre in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosario Central a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Tigre 28%, so Rosario Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rosario Central and 0.9 for Tigre (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosario Central are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.86 for Tigre. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Rosario Central vs Tigre Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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