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Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 16 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 21:45

Velez Sarsfield

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Union Santa Fe

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+25.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-14.7%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.2%1-19.1%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-15.8%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-14.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 45.5% 2.20 +25.8%

Draw 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -19.3%

Away win 15.9% 28.6% 3.50 -44.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 38.5% 2.60 +30.0%

Over 3.5 25.4% 19.0% 5.25 +33.4%

BTTS 49.5% 47.6% 2.10 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.8%

#2 1–0 15.2%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 3–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velez Sarsfield2.0

Union Santa Fe0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VELEZ SARSFIELD · PPG 2.17

UNION SANTA FE · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=57.2%

Win probability 1X2

Velez Sarsfield (H) 57.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +25.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.3%

Union Santa Fe (A) 15.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -44.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velez Sarsfield face Union Santa Fe in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velez Sarsfield a 57% chance, the draw 27% and Union Santa Fe 16%, so Velez Sarsfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Velez Sarsfield and 0.6 for Union Santa Fe (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velez Sarsfield are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Union Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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