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Belgrano vs Sarmiento Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura · Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 19:00

Belgrano

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Sarmiento

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-111.9%0-24.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.2%1-113.0%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.4%2-17.1%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.6%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 57.5% 1.74 -28.3%

Draw 35.6% 30.8% 3.25 +15.7%

Away win 23.2% 18.9% 5.30 +23.0%

Over 2.5 28.3% 38.5% 2.60 -26.4%

Over 3.5 11.7% 19.0% 5.25 -38.6%

BTTS 37.3% 43.5% 2.30 -14.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob37.3%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 1–0 17.2%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belgrano1.1

Sarmiento0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BELGRANO · PPG 1.57

SARMIENTO · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

41%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=41.2%

Win probability 1X2

Belgrano (H) 41.2%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -28.3%

Draw 35.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +15.7%

Sarmiento (A) 23.2%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano face Sarmiento in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano a 41% chance, the draw 36% and Sarmiento 23%, so Belgrano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Belgrano and 0.8 for Sarmiento (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.43 for Sarmiento. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Belgrano vs Sarmiento Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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